Michael Clemens

1 year ago

Michael Clemens
1 year ago

Today I begin a 🧵 on new, striking immigration research.

First, in a long thread:

Léa Marchal et al. meta-analyze 2,146 estimated effects of immigration on native wages. Average almost exactly zero, across skill levels.

Novel result: publication bias favors negative estimates.

leamarchal.fr/wp-content/uploa…

Does Immigration Affect Wages? A Meta-Analysis

Abstract : Does immigration affect wages? No decisive answer has been provided until now. We propose an up-to-date meta-analysis of the literature investigating this question, based on 2,146 es- timates from 64 studies published between 1972 and 2019. We find that, on average, the literature reports a negative and close to zero effect of immigration on native wages. This result holds for both low/medium-skilled and high-skilled native individuals. This average effect, however, hides a large heterogeneity across studies. Variation across estimates can be explained by the presence of structural heterogeneity such as the country of analysis or the use of micro-level data, as well as to heterogeneity in research designs such as the use of difference-in-differences. Finally, we estimate a significant and negative effect of publishing in leading academic journals and propose a discussion on the potential publication bias in the literature.

Keywords : Immigration, Labor Market, Meta-Analysis, Wage

This entry was edited (1 year ago)

in reply to Michael Clemens

Michael Clemens

in reply to Michael Clemens 1 year ago

The US earnings gap between third-generation Mexican-American men and non-Mexican whites is about half as large today as in 1940.

Prior estimates, lacking full-count census data, have missed this progress by missing the best-integrated Mexican Americans.

Kosack+Ward—> doi.org/10.1017/S0022050720000…

El Sueño Americano? The Generational Progress of Mexican Americans Prior to World War

Epward Kosack AND ZACHARY WARD

We present new estimates of the outcomes of first-generation Mexicans and their descendants between 1880 and 1940. We find zero convergence of the economic gap between Mexicans and non-Mexican whites across three generations. The great-grandchildren of immigrants also had fewer years of education. Slow convergence is not simply due to an inheritance of poverty; rather, Mexican Americans had worse outcomes conditional on the father’s economic status. However, the gap between third-generation Mexican Americans and non-Mexican whites is about half the size today as it was in 1940, suggesting that barriers to Mexican American progress have significantly decreased over time.

El Sueño Americano? The Generational Progress of Mexican Americans Prior to World War II | The Journal of Economic History | Cambridge Core

El Sueño Americano? The Generational Progress of Mexican Americans Prior to World War II - Volume 80 Issue 4

^{Cambridge Core}

in reply to Michael Clemens

Michael Clemens

in reply to Michael Clemens 1 year ago

Perceptions reign:

County-level unauthorized US immigration reduces native employment *in migrant-intensive sectors*, & shifts local expenditure from education to policing…

…but null effects on unemployment, wages, crime rates

Tiburcio+Camarena: ernestotiburcio.files.wordpres…

The Local Reaction to Unauthorized Mexican Migration to the US

Ernesto Tiburcio
Kara Ross Camarena

We study the political impacts of unauthorized Mexican migration to the United States. Our identification strategy relies on two shift-share instruments that combine variation in migration inflows and migrant networks using data on more than 7 million likely unauthorized migrants who obtained consular IDs. We identify evidence of conservative electoral and policy responses at the level of a US county. Unauthorized migration significantly increases the vote share of the Republican Party in federal elections and decreases total public expenditure. We also find that the allocation of public expen- diture shifts away from education towards policing and the administration of justice. We find evidence in favor of three interrelated mechanisms: economic grievance, re- flected in formal job loss in “migrant-intensive” sectors and an associated increase in the number of poor people; out-migration, White flight, and population decline; and an increase in out-group bias, as manifested in reduced moral universalism. Unauthorized migration inflows have no discernible impact on total employment, average wages, un- employment, or crime rates.

in reply to Michael Clemens

Michael Clemens

in reply to Michael Clemens 1 year ago

Do ethnic enclaves prevent economic integration by new immigrants, or serve as a gateway to greater integration?

In Sweden 2000–2010, enclaves help—when residents are employed. Integration of earlier arrivals makes them an engine of new integration.

Kadarik et al.—> doi.org/10.1177/0308518X219897…

Country-of-origin-specific economic capital in neighbourhoods: Impact on immigrants’ employment opportunities

Kati Kadarik et al.

Abstract

Does living in an area characterized by high concentrations of residents of the same country-of-origin deprive ethnic minority groups, or does potential access to an extended country-of-origin-specific network stimulate their integration? This paper takes a new approach to analysing the potential of country-of-origin-specific economic capital in neighbourhoods to increase employment opportunities. We add to the ‘ethnic enclave’ debate by measuring country-of-origin-specific economic capital as the rate of employed co-countrymen, while controlling for the presence of co-countrymen and general employment rates in the neighbourhood. Whereas many studies employ aggregated data to estimate the impact of neighbourhood, here we use individualized, scalable neighbourhoods. This allows for a flexible approach in studying the impact of country-of-origin-specific economic capital in neighbourhoods. We employ individual longitudinal Swedish registry data for 2000-2010 on working- age individuals of Iraqi, Iranian, Turkish, and Somalian backgrounds in Stockholm, Géteborg, and Malmé6. We find that an increased share of employed co-countrymen positively influences individual employment prospects.

in reply to Michael Clemens

Michael Clemens

in reply to Michael Clemens 1 year ago

When people with xenophobic beliefs perceive those beliefs as widespread, they are more likely to express xenophobia…

…but also: People who *disagree* with those beliefs are less likely to sanction expressions of xenophobia

By Bursztyn+Egorov+Fiorin —> doi.org/10.1257/aer.20171175

American Economic Review

From Extreme to Mainstream: The Erosion of Social Norms'

By LEONARDO BURSZTYN, GEORGY EGOROV, AND STEFANO FIORIN

Social norms, usually persistent, can change quickly when new pub- lic information arrives, such as a surprising election outcome. People may become more inclined to express views or take actions previ- ously perceived as stigmatized and may judge others less negatively for doing so. We examine this possibility using two experiments. We first show via revealed preference experiments that Donald Trump’s rise in popularity and eventual victory increased individuals’ will- ingness to publicly express xenophobic views. We then show that individuals are sanctioned less negatively if they publicly expressed a xenophobic view in an environment where that view is more popular.

in reply to Michael Clemens

Michael Clemens

in reply to Michael Clemens 1 year ago

Having forced migrants in your family *or* local community — generations ago — is correlated with pro-refugee attitudes and behaviors today, in Germany and Greece.

By Dinas, Fouka, & Schläpfer —> doi.org/10.1086/710016

Family History and Attitudes toward Out-Groups: Evidence from the European Refugee Crisis

Elias Dinas, European University Institute and University of Oxford

Vasiliki Fouka, Stanford University

Alain Schlipfer, Stanford University

Can leveraging family history reduce xenophobia? Building on theories of group identity, we show that a family history of forced relocation leaves an imprint on future generations and can be activated to increase sympathy toward refugees. We provide evidence from Greece and Germany, two countries that vividly felt the European refugee crisis, and that witnessed large-scale forced displacement of their own populations during the twentieth century. Combining historical and survey data with an experimental manipulation, we show that mentioning the parallels between past and present differentially increases pledged monetary donations and attitudinal measures of sympathy for refugees among respondents with forcibly displaced ancestors. This differential effect is also present among respondents without a family history of forced migration who live in places with high historical concentration of refugees. Our findings highlight the role of identity and shared experience for reducing out-group discrimination.

in reply to Michael Clemens

Michael Clemens

in reply to Michael Clemens 1 year ago

Continuing 🧵 of new migration research:

In a novel randomized evaluation, standalone English-language training for adult immigrants in the US…

—Causes ↑ 56% in annual earnings (years 2–10)

—Has +6% ROI for public purse via ↑ tax revenue

By Heller+Slungaard Mumma—> doi.org/10.1257/pol.20210336 #LaborEcon

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy

Immigrant Integration in the United States: The Role of Adult English Language Training

By BLAKE H. HELLER AND KIRSTEN SLUNGAARD MUMMA

The ability to speak and understand a host country’s primary language is strongly associated with measures of immigrant integration. We estimate the causal effects of English language training for adult immigrants on participants’ civic and economic outcomes using randomized enrollment lotteries from a public adult education program in Massachusetts. Participation doubles voter participation and increases annual earnings by $2,400 (56 percent). Increased tax revenue from earnings gains cover program costs over time, generating a 6 percent return for taxpayers. Ours is the first randomized evaluation of adult English language training as a standalone intervention in the United States.

#LaborEcon

in reply to Michael Clemens

Michael Clemens

in reply to Michael Clemens 1 year ago

In fiscal 2023, the largest single nationality of migrant encountered at the US southwest border—apart from Mexicans—was Venezuelans.

Using Venezuelans' spatial settlement patterns, Gunadi tests and fails to detect impacts on native labor force outcomes, at any skill level—> doi.org/10.1111/obes.12455

OXFORD BULLETIN OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS

The Labour Market Effects of Venezuelan Refugee Crisis in the United States

CHRISTIAN GUNADI

Abstract

This article examines the characteristics, location choice and labour market impacts of the recent inflow of Venezuelan refugees in the United States. A few interesting findings emerge from analysing the data. Unlike previous US immigration experience in the 1980s, the flow of recent Venezuelan refugees into the United States is characterized by an inflow of highly educated individuals with a college education. The finding of the analysis also suggests that the location choice of these refugees within the United States is not mainly driven by labour market conditions in the destination cities. Rather, distance to home country and climatic difference with Venezuela are the main factors in determining the flow of Venezuelan refugees into a particular US city. Consistent with this finding, most Venezuelan refugees choose to settle only in two cities in Florida: Miami and Orlando. Examining the labour market conditions in Miami and Orlando following the flow of Venezuelan refugees, the results of the analysis show a lack of evidence that the labour force participation, unemployment rate and weekly wages of US natives are adversely affected by the inflow.

in reply to Michael Clemens

Michael Clemens

in reply to Michael Clemens 1 year ago

Greater exposure to foreign-born classmates causes ↑ native math+reading test scores, greatest ↑ for black students

Uses *within household* variation, full universe K–12 data from Florida 2002–2012

Forthcoming in REStud by Figlio et al.—>

nber.org/papers/w28596 #immigration

Diversity in Schools: Immigrants and the Educational Performance of U.S. Born Students

David N. Figlio, Paola Giuliano, Riccardo Marchingiglio, Umut Ozek, and Paola Sapienza

ABSTRACT We study the effect of exposure to immigrants on the educational outcomes of US-born students, using a unique dataset combining population-level birth and school records from Florida. This research question is complicated by substantial school selection of US-born students, especially among White and comparatively affluent students, in response to the presence of immigrant students in the school. We propose a new identification strategy to partial out the unobserved non-random selection into schools, and find that the presence of immigrant students has a positive effect on the academic achievement of US-born students, especially for students from disadvantaged backgrounds. Moreover, the presence of immigrants does not affect negatively the performance of affluent US-born students, who typically show a higher academic achievement compared to immigrant students. We provide suggestive evidence on potential channels.

Diversity in Schools: Immigrants and the Educational Performance of U.S. Born Students

Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, and business professionals.

^NBER

#immigration

in reply to Michael Clemens

Michael Clemens

in reply to Michael Clemens 1 year ago

In the Netherlands, natives 8% less likely to cooperate with a non-Western immigrant, in second stage of a trust game, if immigrant trusts the native

In other words, the returns to being trustworthy are lower for the immigrant

By Cettolin+Suetens in EJ—> doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12629 #immigration

#immigration

in reply to Michael Clemens

Michael Clemens

in reply to Michael Clemens 1 year ago

Immigration-driven increases in ethnic/occupational diversity—measured by surname diversity in full-universe census—caused ↑ innovation in US counties, 1850–1940

Not compositional: robust to surname FE

Simply meeting more people unlike oneself causes more new economic ideas measured as patents, including 'breakthrough' highly-cited patents

By my star GMU colleague Jonathan Schulz, +Posch & Henrich—>

dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.453120… #LaborEcon #Immigration

Surname Diversity, Social Ties and Innovation

Max Posch, Jonathan Schulz, Joseph Henrich

August 3, 2023

Abstract

We study whether interactions between individuals with different skills, expertise and perspectives influenced innovation in U.S. counties from 1850 to 1940. We introduce and validate a new measure of social interactional diversity based on the distribution of surnames: lower surname diversity indicates more concentrated social interactions among like-minded people. Leveraging quasi-random variation in counties’ surname compositions—stemming from the interplay between historical fluctuations in im- migration and local factors that attract immigrants—we find that surname diversity increases both the quantity and quality of innovation. The results support the view that social interactions between diverse minds are key drivers of innovation. Keywords: Innovation, social interactions, surname diversity, immigration JEL Classification: 033, R11, N92, J15, Z13

Surname Diversity, Social Ties and Innovation

^dx.doi.org

#immigration #LaborEcon

in reply to Michael Clemens

Michael Clemens

in reply to Michael Clemens 1 year ago

Does immigration cause reduced support for social policy?

73 research teams—using identical data—reached vastly different estimates.

"Researchers must make analytical decisions so minute that they often do not even register as decisions."

Breznau et al.—> doi.org/10.1073/pnas.220315011… #immigration #laborecon

Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty

This study explores how researchers’ analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigra- tion reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers’ expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95% of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each team’s workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers’ results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested.

#immigration #LaborEcon

⇧

Michael Clemens 1 year ago • •

Michael Clemens
1 year ago