in reply to Dmytri

This is exactly how I have described the limitations of black box models to others.

A good scientific model should do two things:

1) Provide accurate predictions of outcomes given certain inputs, and
2) Enable greater understanding of how a system works.

Simpler machine learning models, like logistic regression or decision trees, can sometimes do both, at least for simpler phenomenon. The models are explainable and their decisions are interpretable. For those reasons among others, applied machine learning researchers still use these simpler approaches wherever they can be made to work.

But in our haste to increase accuracy for more complex phenomenon, we've created models that merely provide semi-accurate predictions at the expense of explainability and interpretability. Like the ptolemaic model of the solar system, these models mostly work well in predicting outcomes within the narrow areas in which they've been trained. But they do absolutely nothing to enable understanding of the underlying phenomenon. Or worse, they mislead us into fundamentally wrong understandings. And because their training is overfit onto the limits of their training data, their accuracy falls apart unpredictably when used for tasks outside the distribution of their training. Computational linguists and other experts that might celebrate these models instead lament the benighted ignorance left in their wake.

Or how it was more eloquently stated in the great philosophical film Billy Madison:

"Mr. Madison, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul."

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in reply to Dave Wilburn

@DaveMWilburn
#pluralistic describes the technical debt of these AI coding models as asbestos in the walls.

A hazard we'll be digging out of the walls for decades to come.

It remains a fact that when petrostate despots are this desperate to impose user adoption, alarm bells should be ringing. Fossil fuel funded cyberwarfare.

reuters.com/technology/artific…

fortune.com/2025/11/20/saudi-v…

When anti-democracy billionaires are spending this kind of cash on a boondoggle...
forbes.com/sites/mattdurot/202…

in reply to Dmytri

How hard will billionaires work to impose the AI world view on the globe?

To the same degree as religious zealots?
Centuries of dispute over irrelevant issues like "how many angels can dance on the head of a pin?"

A worldview that says human expertise is dead.

The worldview that says "Democracy is dead. The CEO of Koch Industries & Palantir own you."

The world view of "might makes right" and "power & wealth has no goal, only its self-perpetuation".

1/

This entry was edited (1 day ago)
in reply to Dmytri

This way of doing things not only happens in coding (as this example above) but un many disciplines including science itself (when theoretical knowledge is incorrect or not fully understood, so little empirical models are established until a bigger paradigm explains everything naturally) but also in industry, for example, in the US cows feed in industrial corn feeders instead of natural grasslands. This cause an increase of Escherichia Coli bacteria that naturally exists in the cow's rumen that ends up in the burger grinded meat. Industry invested in chemists and biochemists to develop a chemical process that uses ammonia and other substances that kill the EColi bacteria, but also leaves the meat without color (grey). So another process is developed to artificially color back the meat... Off course everything is fixed allowing cows to eat in grasslands, because the cellulose of the grass naturally controls the level of EColi bacteria. Artificial epicycles for fixing something fundamentally wrong that hould be fixed easily.

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in reply to Dmytri

That's a good analogy.

It even extends further:

In order to make technological progress, we needed to abandon the incorrect model of our solar system. We would probably not have made it to the moon if we'd stuck to the ptolemaic model of our solar system.

Similarly, in order to meaningfully advance our software ecosystem, we need to abandon code produced using poor software engineering practices – such as LLM codegen.

in reply to Dmytri

@dk@nettime.org Jumping back a level of analysis or two (and therefore maybe no longer being valid): I'm thinking of the tweaks LLM masters demand their engineers make to LLM output, usually (from what I've seen) for two reasons:

To reduce antisocial behavior (e.g., LLMs producing fascist, misogynist, racist, anti-queer, etc. content, or stop them from encouraging people to commit #suicide)
To increase the happiness of rich-people-who-own-the-LLMs (e.g., increase profit, decrease Grok saying Elon is an asshole, etc.)

The fact that both of these need to (apparently) be done regularly suggests a mismatch with "reality." Arguably, that is not objective external reality but the internal reality of the LLM vis-a-vis its constantly-updating training corpus. The combination of the LLM code and its training corpus seems to make LLMs regularly say awful things and also fail to generate maximum profit for the owners/shareholders.

I won't be the first (or 10,000th) to say there is a significant mismatch between what LLMs (currently) are and what their masters want them to do.

This entry was edited (19 hours ago)
in reply to Dmytri

I think this prediction is on target. It is a more general syndrome that results from multiple failures to practice good software engineering. Reuse of code can be really great or a nightmare. I’d put AI-code reuse together with other common software failures in the category of faulty design. That affects everything downstream if you don’t catch it. Your formulation also highlights the failure to create complete requirements as well as the limitations of testing. It’s why we have brittle systems. I’ll wager most human-generated code of any significant complexity is “Ptolemaic” by your definition. No one has proved to my satisfaction that the current crop of AI-developed code is any better quality than what people produce, and that’s generous. But it is fast and probably costs less (initially) even if it doesn’t work right!
in reply to Dmytri

I love the idea! That said, how is traditional software development not prone to this either? Factoring out the deconomic (as in: the problem scaling out quickly) aspect, what do we do to prevent fundamentally incorrect models other than verifying the resulting artifacts against more or less distant interpretations of the user intentions that an AI could not?
This entry was edited (1 day ago)
in reply to Dmytri

Nice. It is a little unfair to Ptolemy. Epicycles are in implementation of the Fourier transform.

It is very good example of the distinction between a predictive model and a casual one. The Copernican model would still have to inject corrections.

“ For his contemporaries, the ideas presented by Copernicus were not markedly easier to use than the geocentric theory and did not produce more accurate predictions of planetary positions.”

..

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copernic…

in reply to Dmytri

Hi @dk, makes me think of this interview with Oswald Wiener, which is luckily still on archive.org:
web.archive.org/web/2016031518…
Quote:
" Zwei Gedankenstränge waren die Vorläufer zum Bioadapter. Zum einen die Vorstellung der Gesellschaft als Homöostat. Ich bemerkte, dass die Kybernetik diesen Zug an sich hat, als Neuheitenverhinderungsmechanismus zu funktionieren. Ich habe auch alle möglichen Gleichnisse gebraucht, etwa dass Kopernikus über moderne Computer verfügte. Dann hätte man das ptolemäische Weltbild endlos weiterführen können, das ja in erster Linie deswegen aufgegeben wurde, weil die Epizykel immer mehr und die Berechnungen immer komplizierter wurden. Aber durch Erhöhung der Rechenleistung hätte man das kopernikanische Weltbild verhindert. Vielleicht nicht für immer, aber für 100 Jahre. Wenn der Sprung zu einer neuen Qualität, einer anderen Auffassung geschieht, weil die Widersprüche nicht mehr administrierbar sind, wäre der Computer ein Mittel zur Verlängerung des alten Zustands.
Der andere Strang waren erkenntnistheoretische Schwierigkeiten. Man kann schwer übersehen, dass wir nur Repräsentationen der Wirklichkeit in unserem Kopf haben, die verbessert, verschlechtert, angepasst werden. ..."

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in reply to Dmytri

god, I have needed a word like this!

Like - face generation. People either wear glasses or they don't, it's a binary operation. But generation via diffusion starts with a continuous feature space, and is acted upon by a continuous function.
This code will function in most cases but it is fundamentally incorrect.

If you take two faces, one with glasses and one without, interpolating between them will get you weird glasses melded with the face, and this is an artefact of that.

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