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We really should talk more about why Nate Silver is not particularly liked by a lot of people who actually work with data.

"I would bet 60-40, 70-30 on lab leak probably"

This is just throwing random numbers on his hunches. He does this _all of the time_ and doesn't generally disclose (or even necessarily know to disclose) which pieces are his "hunches."

He mixes things that he puts into a model and fails to mention any validation beyond topline as well
hachyderm.io/@hrefna/113331563…



Spent some time today working on a little website to provide information about a bit of vintage computing history from my childhood, including a video demo (using emulation). I'm talking about Diversi-Tune, an early MIDI music program for the Apple IIGS, written by the late, great Bill Basham. divtune.com/ The website also briefly notes his later rewrite of Diversi-Tune for early-2000s Windows and web browsers, which he hosted at this domain. That version's harder to preserve.

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in reply to Matt Campbell

Yes, I said "the late, great Bill Basham". Sadly, he passed away in 2021. I asked his brother Mike for permission before I bought the domain, which expired and was put up for sale by GoDaddy. Mike Basham appreciates what I'm doing with this website.
in reply to Matt Campbell

I'm aware that, as I post this, the Internet Archive is still not fully back online, meaning that my link to the Apple IIGS version doesn't work. (I actually started working on the website a couple months ago.) I don't think the Apple IIGS disk image I happen to have is pristine. I could see if I can find a pristine disk image somewhere else and then host a copy. But hopefully the Internet Archive will be fully operational again soon.
in reply to Matt Campbell

I decided to self-host the video. I encoded it in both WebM and MP4 versions. (I did ask the Claude 3.5 Sonnet LLM to generate FFmpeg commands for me, but I reviewed and modified them.) Being low-resolution screen capture, the video compressed very well. I'd appreciate it if fully sighted folks can let me know if my encodings of the video have noticeable artifacts. I also uploaded a lossless version to YouTube. Of course, it's possible that YouTube's own encodings could add artifacts.
in reply to Matt Campbell

OK, now I've possibly spent too much time on this little side project. I decided to re-do the demo video. First, I decided I should emulate a ROM version 01 Apple IIGS rather than ROM version 3, since the former is what my family actually owned and what I used as a child. Then I decided to capture the video from MAME in its original aspect ratio, which looks wrong on modern displays because the Apple IIGS didn't have square pixels, and then scale it with FFmpeg.
in reply to Matt Campbell

And finally, about those FFmpeg commands, I decided to basically throw out the ones I had the Claude LLM generate for me, and instead try to build up my own by reading FFmpeg documentation. I originally justified using Claude on the grounds that FFmpeg has so many options that they're daunting for a non-expert. But in fact, FFmpeg has very good documentation, which I now reference on my detailed page about the video and how I made it: divtune.com/apple2gs_demo/

Peter Vágner reshared this.

in reply to Matt Campbell

I suppose the whole process, and my own mind, is still contaminated because I initially used an LLM. I can think of the following things that remain from my usage of Claude:

- The use of FFV1 as a lossless video codec. Presumably I would have found that in the FFmpeg documentation if I had really looked.
- The pixel format conversion to yuv420p to fix compatibility problems. Claude gave me that one for the MP4 version, and then I also applied it to WebM.
- The use of 256 Kbps for AAC.

in reply to Matt Campbell

Now, I have to mention that this program wasn't and isn't accessible to fully blind people. The documentation for Textalker GS, the one screen reader I'm aware of for the Apple IIGS, specifically mentioned Diversi-Tune as a program that could not be made accessible with that screen reader. This was a downside of Diversi-Tune's focus on efficiency, accessing the hardware directly rather than using even the primitive GUI toolkit (literally called the Toolbox) that the Apple IIGS offered.

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Que porra é essa, caralho?! 😡 Estão removendo árvores para dar visibilidades aos anúncios outdoor
oglobo.globo.com/google/amp/ri…
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in reply to Sofia ☭🇧🇷☭

There's some sort of weird anti-tree conspiracy happening in Rio, and apparently at least part of it is to do with giving more visibility to advertising billboards. Although I swear I've seen trees removed in places without billboards...but then again, it's hard to tell, because sometimes street trees do have to be removed for legitimate reasons


Amos Miller of Glidance released a new amazing video showing the capability of Glide, the mobility tool that he has created. If you have not seen this new video, and by the way it is described, then I highly encourage you to check it out... youtube.com/watch?v=Xq8ofapGxX…

#Blind #Mobility #AmosMiller #Glidance #Glide #Accessible




It’s time for these leaders to actually lead, clearing a path that leads beyond X and towards social media environments like Bluesky and Mastodon — platforms that at least gesture in the direction of user safety and protection of the vulnerable.


Hell. YES.

inquirer.com/opinion/commentar…



Exclusive: Trump ground game in key states flagged as potentially fake - The Guardian apple.news/Aqni_xkcAQUSpkmYHMd…


GrapheneOS and android 15 beta upgrade. Pixel8 on the big screen, unbeatable. I probably won't think about a linux phone, at least not for a while, because now I have a notebook in my pocket, without google and most FOSS apps. Tidal from the phone looks good on the big screen, all other apps work too. #GrapheneOS #pixel8 #bigscreen #nextlevel #degoogle
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Llevo tiempo queriendo hacer yoga o pilates, pero no veía la forma de hacerlo de forma accesible para enterarme bien. no se si me explico. Bueno, como en la asociación de vecinos de mi barrio hacen cositas, les dije que si hacían yoga o pilates me tuviesen en cuenta ellas ya saben que soy ciega). Hoy me han escrito, que estaán montando clases de yoga y que si sigo interesada me pasan el contacto del profe, para que le diga lo que necesito para poder seguir la clase sin problema. (1/2)


Everybody keeps talking about post quantum encryption. We should also be talking about post AI web browsing.
in reply to Merry Jerry 🎄🎅🕎⛄️❄️

It's back to Pre-Google web browsing, unfortunately. Cultivate a list of good source and websites, then use them directly.
in reply to Marcus Hutchins

@malwaretech
Never thought about it this way, but recently I found myself doing and curating the bookmarks like couple of decades back. Honestly I thought I'm just getting old, the middle age crisis or something, but now I realised I maybe just intuitively started to fix some search engine issues...


Any fellow Catholics here use flocknote for parish-side communications?
in reply to Anny hopes

No, that's never happened to me. I signed up to receive announcements from my parish so I've never been added without my consent.
in reply to David Goldfield

@DavidGoldfield
Cool. That was the case for me too, and I suspect many in my diocese, until a couple of days ago and it really feels like a breach of trust.
Thanks!


@Christians@a.gup.pe Just thought about this and decided to create a #GuppeGroup for #Christians, so Christians throughout the #Fediverse and #Mastodon can have a place to talk to and meet each other. For those who don't know about #Guppe groups, it's a group that automatically boosts posts mentioning it, and you can follow it to see posts.
in reply to Cleverson

@clv0 @DavidGoldfield Hi. A.gup.pe was down for a little while so links to groups weren't working. Try following it now. @christians


New weekend challenge moto:

#SystemCrafters (@daviwil) rule 42: "To maximize your learning opportunities, do stupid things [in your computer] that force you to dig yourself out of a hole". 🤓

Source: youtube.com/live/TjMTNSdhUvk?t…



Создатель онлайн-библиотеки Flibusta Stiver: серверы оплачены, сайт поддерживается и работает в стабильном режиме habr.com/p/851838/
#flibusta #stiver


Cestou z práce na jedno zasloužené. A teď nechci volant do pondělí vidět
in reply to Archos

@archos
Já tam mám zítra tak na 30 minut nějaký update informací na webu České školy a pustím na dálku nějaký extra backup databází na můj soukromý NAS. Jinak mám v plánu jen knížku, kafe a gauč/postel


For people who use android, what's a good mastadon client for said device?


Tak jsem propadl další závislosti :blobcatpat: Medieval Dynasty, mě opravdu hodně chytlo a nemohu se od toho odtrhnout :blobcatgamer: Lovit, těžit, stavět vesnici. Je to vcelku náročné a všechno chce dost času, ale to budování je uspokojující :blobcatcoffee: #MedievalDynasty
in reply to Archos

@archos Vypadá to dobře, hraje se to dobře, není to náročné na PC, nemá to žádné problémy s funkčností. Jen by to mohlo mít větší textury na zem a cesty, dabingu je tam hodně poskromnu a chce to si pročíst dost nápověd, aby člověk pochopil mechaniku práce a výroby obyvatel :blobcatbook:


Introduction To ELF In Linux: A Simple Guide To Executable Files lxer.com/module/newswire/ext_l…


hullcaster - terminal-based podcast manager lxer.com/module/newswire/ext_l…


Greetings from Pruis Hall on the campus of Ball State University. I'm here for the Central Indiana Severe Weather Symposium. If you want to follow along, it's #CISWS24. If don't don't want to follow along, mute #CISWS24.
#INwx
in reply to Ben Cotton (he/him)

When upper-level jet streaks are orthogonal to the warm sector, there's a higher chance for tornado outbreaks. 96% of violent outbreaks show this alignment. This has been nicknamed the "violent outbreak cross" (VOC) #CISWS24
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Comparison of Samsung Galaxy Buds 3 Pro and Google Pixel Buds Pro 2 accessibleandroid.com/comparis…

Khronos reshared this.



TOMRA R2: a machine capable of receiving 100 empty containers per minute. 👍🏻
#statiegeld



This morning we went to see an exhibition by the wonderful Margot from watercolorpatterns (watercolourpatterns.com/), and it's just insane the precision, dedication and just sheer amount of care and detail she puts into every single one of her watercolors.

And it's all just this wonderfully enthusiastic lady doing everything herself!

Give her a hand if you have the chance, she's wonderful




Grand Theft Autocomplete is my new favourite term for LLMs
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Je tu taký starší pán a ide na bicykli z Hamburgu... teraz je tu a ide do Istanbulu a potom do Indie. Kamoš @xChaos ? Veľmi mu chutí a vraj je spokojný tak u nás bude denne pokiaľ tu bude. :02_sip:

edit: dal som mu šišku. 😁

This entry was edited (2 weeks ago)
in reply to SuspiciousDuck

odišiel a dal som si práska a celkom ma hitlo... potom sa vrátil že "I'm messed up from that..." :kekw:

edit: kúpil si some sort of HHC na Obchodnej, tak som mu ponúkol no

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VOTE EARLY THIS WEEKEND

Good morning. If you live in a state where you can vote early or vote by mail, why not vote this weekend?

Check your state: cbsnews.com/news/map-early-vot…

Voting early is the best thing you can do to help Harris. It establishes a winning narrative which undermines polling manipulation by biased GOP pollsters. It also motivates our team and demoralizes them. Right now, with more than 10 million votes already banked, Dems are up by >1.5 million votes.

VOTE!

@KamalaHarrisWin



Tim Walz is not "redefining masculinity." Tim Walz is redefining *white masculinity*.

Trump does not have a big lead with men voters. Trump has an *absolutely massive lead* with *white men voters*.

70% of the NFL is Black. 90% of those Black men vote Dem. More Black men than white women think the environment is important. Black men support masking to prevent the spread of Covid. Black men are more likely to support women's reproductive rights. Etc, etc.

usatoday.com/story/news/politi…

1/N

in reply to mekka okereke

The reason this view is so discordant is that so many people's view of Black men is based on gangsta rap - base, aggressive, violent.

Which is funny since, as I learned from a post of yours from many months ago, gangsta rap is more popular among white people than it is among Black people.

in reply to David Njoku

@davidnjoku it took me a while but entirely I finally clued into how media portrays black men. Once you start seeing it, it's perversive.

How they show a mug shot if one is available by default. White guy criminals get yearbook photos. words like thug get used a lot. White guys get discussions of their lost future, black guys get only discussions of the crime.

Someone benefits if we're all afraid of black men. It's bullshit. And a lot so called liberals buy into it too.



Are you still using social media platforms? What's your reason?

For Google and Facebook users here's how you can better protect yourself!

Step 1: Stop Facebook collecting SO much data 👉 tuta.com/blog/what-does-facebo…

Step 2: Reduce how much Google knows about you 👉 tuta.com/blog/what-does-google…

in reply to Tuta

interesting that you write this on social media 😜
it's kind of ironic



PRODUCT REVIEW: And that's why it's become my go-to for

DIJKSTRA: *immediately closes tab*



Does anyone have any suggestions for a good #rss reader that works well with #VoiceOver?


Uff ufff, tak vítej zpět mamutovo.cz


always amused when someone in Ontario talks about "driving across the province in 8 hours"

buddy, Ottawa to Kenora was 21 hours of straight driving last I checked

most people have no idea how damn big this place is unless they've done the trip themselves

in reply to Rick Scott 🏳️‍⚧️

@hub and I wouldn't believe how bad most people are at navigation if I hadn't seen it for myself. it was wild how many folks on my recruit course had never touched a map & compass before, and how many still had no idea how to use them afterwards

it's just not a skill that we teach, or that most people learn

in reply to Rick Scott 🏳️‍⚧️

people with a GPS navigation that get lost in their own neighborhood trying to get gas. These exist.


Yesterday I finally solved the third hardest discrete bug I’ve worked on in my career. Took about 3.5 weeks of work. At the end, I spent 10 consecutive days doing nothing but investigating this bug, all day, every day. I then took a day off to pick up my folks in Pennsylvania because they wrecked their car (everyone is fine, just car damage). Came back, and yesterday I finally found it.

1/

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pixelfed.cz je opět online, postupně se obnovují další aplikace. Ještě jednou se omlouvám za tak dlouhý výpadek.
in reply to Miroslav Suchý

Mělo by to být v pořádku. Byla i změna DNS. Maximálně bude chvíli problém s federací.
This entry was edited (2 weeks ago)


The fact that space indents won out over tabs actually makes me a little sad.

I just don't see why pressing a key four times is better.

This entry was edited (2 weeks ago)
in reply to 13 barn owls in a trenchcoat

i just press tab and the editor inserts 4 spaces. 🤷

(Now that I'm writing this, it sounds kind of ridiculous. But also I didn't really think about this for the last x years at all, so I guess that's a success?)



Inspired by a recent discussion here, I've been testing the accessibility of the Tuba ActivityPub client with the Orca screen reader.
Findings are encouraging so far. The only significant issue is that, if I'm running a Wayland session, I encounter the keyboard handling problem that currently affects the use of Orca with all GTK4 applications. However, at least for reading ActivityPub threads, Tuba is very screen reader-accessible.
#Tuba #ActivityPub #gnome #accessibility